MLB Mathematical Elimination Report: September 18, 2014
San Diego will be mathematically eliminated if one of two events occurs:
1. They lose at home to Philadelphia
2. Pittsburgh wins at home against Boston
The Mets and Tampa Bay can be eliminated on Friday.
Thursday’s game between Arizona and Colorado should be the first one of the season between two teams that have been mathematically eliminated barring a rainout. San Diego and Philadelphia will start about 30 minutes after the game in Denver, but the Padres may not be eliminated by the time its game starts.
After winning a Pulitzer Prize with his groundbreaking, dramatic, psychologically intense depiction of the 1960 presidential campaign, Theodore White tried it again in 1964. But, this election lacked the drama of 1960 (most elections have) and instead, White came up with a somewhat confused narrative that paints the winning candidate, Lyndon Johnson, as both a saint and sinner, and the loser,…
MLB Elimination Watch for September 12, 2014 REVISED
Houston will be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention on Friday with a loss at Anaheim AND Oakland beats Seattle AND Detroit beats Cleveland AND Kansas City beats Boston
Houston loses to the Angels AND Seattle beats Oakland AND Toronto beats Tampa Bay.
Houston can only avoid elimination if they beat the Angels, Seattle beats Oakland, and Detroit, Kansas City, and Toronto all lose. The best Houston can do is force an 81-81 tie with Oakland for the second wild card.
The Cubs will be mathematically eliminated Friday if they lose to the Pirates AND Atlanta beats Texas AND Milwaukee beats Cincinnati
Turns out the Rockies can be eliminated today, but only if four things happen:
1) The Rockies must lose at the Mets
2) The Pirates must win at Philadelphia
3) Atlanta must win at Washington
4) The Brewers must win at home against Miami.
If this happened, this would leave Colorado with 85 losses (maximum 77 wins). Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Milwaukee would all have 75 wins. Atlanta and Pittsburgh play each other four times so, at worst, they could split and end up with 77 wins. However, Pittsburgh also plays Milwaukee three times. So either Pittsburgh or Milwaukee would have to end up with at least 78 wins.
If Atlanta lost today and stayed at 74 wins, they could win three of four from Pittsburgh and then Milwaukee could win 2 of their 3 with Pittsburgh and no one could end up with more than 77 wins.
The Rockies swept a weekend series against the Padres and that kept them from ever getting in a position to be mathematically eliminated this weekend. They were also helped out by the Brewers losing three of four to the Cardinals.
Arizona was swept by the Dodgers and now the DBacks and Rockies sit at the bottom of the NL at 59-84 (the already eliminated Rangers are five games worse and lead the race for the first draft pick).
Arizona is off on Monday. Colorado plays the Mets at home. San Francisco, current holder of WC1 in the NL is off. The Rockies will be eliminated from WC1 contention with a loss to the Mets.
WC2 is a three-team race among Pittsburgh at 74-68 with Milwaukee and Atlanta right behind at 74-69. Pittsburgh plays both teams, 3 at home against the Brewers from the 9/19-21 followed by four in Atlanta from 9/22-25.
In the AL, Minnesota is the team that looks ready to have its season officially declared meaningless. The Twins are 61-82. They were eliminated from the AL Central race today after losing to the Angels while Kansas City and Detroit both won. (KC has 79 wins and Detroit has 78 and since they play each other six more times, one of them will have to finish with more than 80 wins.)
The two AL Wild Cards now are Oakland (80-62) and Seattle (78-64). Those two have three games remaining with each other (in Seattle 9/12-14). So one of them will get to 81 wins and eliminate Minnesota from WC1.
But, if Oakland were to sweep Seattle (and otherwise hold on to WC1), the Twins could still get WC2 if they won their remaining 19 games to finish 80-82 and the Mariners, Tigers, Toronto, New York, Cleveland all lost enough games and to the right teams.
The Texas Rangers will be mathematically eliminated from postseason play tonight if:
1) they lose to the Royals in Kansas City
2) the Tigers win at Cleveland.
Texas has already been eliminated from the AL West race. They also cannot catch the current holder of the first wild card spot, Oakland.
That leaves them with a slight chance for Wild Card 2.
Presently, that is Detroit with a 75-62 record.
A Texas loss would drop them to 85 losses, maxing out their wins at 77. If Detroit wins they would be at 76. As would Kansas City, who has one fewer loss.
Detroit and KC still play each other six times. So, if one of them just one of those six games, the other would have at least 77 wins.
Could Texas still get a tie? No. Because Cleveland, who is presently in fourth place in the Wild Card race has 70 wins. They have four games left with the Royals. They have six left with Detroit (five after tonight). So, even if the Royals and Tigers won the bare minimum, Cleveland would blow past them.
After the Rangers, the Rockies are the next most likely team to be eliminated.
For more info, see here: http://lyle.smu.edu/~olinick/riot/american_league.html
This year, for the first time since 1970, I won’t be attending a game at Dodger Stadium. At least I assume I won’t in September or October.
I’ve been doing my best to follow the team, but the cable carriage dispute between DirecTV and Time Warner, was something that I could never get past. The daily rhythm of following the Dodgers was disrupted.
And there were other things on TV to watch. I could watch the World Cup (and I watched a lot of it.) The English Premier League has started up again and that will keep me happy for a good chunk of the time. The Kings run in the Stanley Cup playoffs kept me occupied and happy.
Also, circumstances in life have just made it hard for me to go to a game by myself. When I was a single guy, I liked going to Dodgers games by myself because they were fun. Now that I’m married, well, going by yourself isn’t all that much fun.
There have been times when I can see the Dodgers propaganda channel. I’m not sure why I would be wanting to watch it outside of the time when a game was on. But the whole situation has made following the Dodgers not a matter of liking the team, but liking a pay TV carrier.
Overall, following a sports team is a mostly pointless endeavor. But it seems twice as pointless when you have to pledge allegiance to a cable company as well.
But I’ve complained and whined about this a lot here. And I should stop. Things will probably be back to normal in a year or two. But this whole matter has made me dislike the Dodgers organization far more than any labor action ever did.
I read this article this morning and it left me in a sour mood. It is a puff piece column in the St. Louis Post Dispatch, about the Cardinals honoring Jim Edmonds.
It’s so full of idiotic descriptions of how Edmonds left a shallow, empty Southern California (which is called “La La”) and goes to a place with “depth” like St. Louis.
The column asserts that the Edmonds was traded by the Los Angeles Angels (who were called the Anaheim Angels in Edmonds last year with them in 1999) because the media had hounded him out of town.
The local media really didn’t care that much about Edmonds and the Angels at the time. There were stories in 1995 when the Angels choked away the division lead, but the story line at the time then was that the Angels lost their inspirational leader in Gary DiSarcina. (Note Gary DiSarcina was terrible.)
The Angels players didn’t seem to like Edmonds. And it’s likely that Mike Scioscia didn’t care for him. So the Angels’ GM at the time, Bill Stoneman, made a deal to get rid of him. Edmonds had been hurt in 1999 and the team had a lot of outfielders.
But what difference is there between people in California and people in Missouri? Is there really that much? There are unpleasant people in both places. No place in the country has some monopoly on “depth.” Or moral high ground.
And in light of recent events in the St. Louis area, this article made me angry.
Maybe I will just order a pizza. And open the door for the guy.
pizza man knocked on the door at 10:35pm, family asleep. when he saw the 9mm pistol in my hand, he said “wrong house?” #badtiming#STL
If one were able to go back in time to 1924, most people would be stunned by a lot of things. Communications that seemed glacial in pace, medical care that wouldn’t be very good, and also that the United States was dominated by people who believed that the country should be run by people who were white, who didn’t drink any alcohol, and, for good measure, had only a passing acquaintance with…
We view with pride and satisfaction this bright picture of our country’s growth and prosperity, while only a closer scrutiny develops a somber shading. Upon more careful inspection we find the wealth and luxury of our cities mingled with poverty and wretchedness and unremunerative toil. A crowded and constantly increasing urban population suggests the impoverishment of rural sections and discontent with agricultural pursuits. The farmer’s son, not satisfied with his father’s simple and laborious life, joins the eager chase for easily acquired wealth.
We discover that the fortunes realized by our manufacturers are no longer solely the reward of sturdy industry and enlightened foresight, but that they result from the discriminating favor of the Government and are largely built upon undue exactions from the masses of our people. The gulf between employers and the employed is constantly widening, and classes are rapidly forming, one comprising the very rich and powerful, while in another are found the toiling poor.
As we view the achievements of aggregated capital, we discover the existence of trusts, combinations, and monopolies, while the citizen is struggling far in the rear or is trampled to death beneath an iron heel. Corporations, which should be the carefully restrained creatures of the law and the servants of the people, are fast becoming the people’s masters.
In honor of the Dodgers acquiring Roberto Hernandez, who started his professional baseball career under the name of Fausto Carmona, I’m trying to come up with a list of Dodgers who started off life with a different name than they used when they played. I’m not going to use Spanish surnames where players switch between patronyms and matronyms however. Because then there would be a lot.
My list is pretty much trial and error with a lot of clicking at Baseball-Reference.