(This was supposed to post in the morning, but I hit the wrong thing. This makes up for the one that I posted after a match was over.)
So we all saw that 7-1 win by Germany coming didn’t we? I know I did. (Tries to go back and change prediction.) Likely no one except diehard German supporters thought they would see that. And they probably thought that Germany would win 3-0.
Today, Germany’s opponent in the Sunday final will be determined. Also, Brazil’s opponent in the Saturday consolation game will be determined. And I love me some consolation game action.
The Dutch have been dominant in this series, winning four of the eight matchups. The Argentines have won only one. Unfortunately for the Dutch, that was a 3-1 win in extra time in the 1978 Final in Buenos Aires.
In the past, I’ve actively rooted against Argentina. Even though Maradona was unbelievable in his prime, he was the most annoying superstar in soccer’s history. And soccer has had a lot of annoying superstars.
Argentina now has the supposed successor to Maradona in Lionel Messi. Messi has a lot less baggage than Maradona and is easily the most popular active soccer player. (If you like Cristiano Ronaldo more than Messi, what is the matter with you?)
Argentina is the only team left in the World Cup that has no losses or ties on its record. Argentina hasn’t needed much scoring to win its first two knockout round matches, beating Switzerland and Belgium by 1-0 scores each time.
The Dutch needed two late goals (including a dubious penalty) to beat Mexico 2-1 and then played 120 scoreless minutes against the offside trap masters of Costa Rica before winning on penalties 4-3.
The big story in the Costa Rica match was Dutch manager Louis van Gaal removing his starting goalie, Jasper Cillessen, right before time ran out and replacing him with Tim Krul. It is hard to tell whether this move was some brilliant tactical maneuver by van Gaal or simple mind games. But, it worked.
I can’t believe that van Gaal thought Krul was better. I’ve seen Krul play a lot with Newcastle. He’s not that great.
I don’t think you’ll be seeing such shenanigans again from the Dutch. They could pick a designated penalty stopper against Costa Rica because they had a fairly good idea that the Ticos were going to play for penalties. (Playing for penalties does not seem to sit well with the American cognoscenti. Not manly enough I guess.) The Dutch could hold back their final sub for the goalie.
Against Argentina, the Dutch are going to be facing an opponent who is going to go toe to toe with them. The Dutch will likely need all three subs for outfield players.
I really don’t think this match will be a rout. I don’t see either team falling apart after conceding a goal like Brazil did. The Dutch have come from behind in three of their wins (Spain, Australia, and Mexico). Argentina has never trailed in its first five matches.
Argentina will be without Angel de Maria because of injury. Robin van Persie is questionable for the Dutch because of a stomach ailment.
Although I own an orange Dutch jersey, I would like to see Argentina win just to see how Messi would fare against Germany. The Germans will likely be huge favorites in the final. But, this World Cup has taught us that we really don’t know anything even when the great teams win.
It’s time for the final four. But unlike the Final Four (TM), the two semifinals of the World Cup on different days in different cities. And Jim Nantz isn’t there. Which is nice. And the players are getting paid.
Two teams with eight combined World Cups are meeting in the World Cup for just the second time ever. Their only previous meeting was in the 2002 Final in Yokohama, which Brazil won 2-0, on a pair of goals by Ronaldo.
In the all-time series, Brazil has won 12 times, Germany 4 times, and there have been 5 draws. Their last meeting was in 2011 friendly in Stuttgart, which Germany won 3-2. (You can watch the goals here.) They haven’t met in Brazil since when Brazil won 3-1 in Porto Alegre.
Germany’s Miroslav Klose comes into the match with a total of 15 World Cup goals in his career. If he gets one today, he surpasses for Ronaldo for the most in tournament history.
The biggest story of this match though will be about someone who isn’t there: Neymar. Brazil’s top scorer is out with a back injury. Brazil will also be without captain Tiago Silva, but he is just out because of a suspension for two yellows and he can play in the final or consolation match.
Brazil has not been the Brazil that people expect. They are not a team dashing up and down the field pouring goals in. This team grinds out goals (except for Neymar, and he’s not playing, see above). Brazil was whistled for 31 fouls in its quarterfinal win over Colombia. For comparison purposes, Germany committed 15 fouls against France in its quarterfinal.
The Germans scored a lot early, scoring six in its first two matches, but since then, the goals have dried up. Germany won 1-0 in its final group match against the USA. They needed 120 minutes to finally get two goals against Algeria in the round of 16. The Germans scored early against France and held on for a 1-0 win.
The goalkeepers are an interesting contrast. Brazil’s Julio Cesar plays for FC Toronto, after his English club team, Queens Park Rangers, stopped playing him. It’s possible that QPR may take him back after the World Cup, especially after his performance in the penalty shootout win against Chile. Or maybe not. QPR is a weird team. Also, Brazil’s defense has only required Julio Cesar to make six saves in five matches.
Germany’s keeper is Manuel Neuer, who starts for one of the best teams in the world, Bayern Munich. Neuer loves to come off his line and wander out of the penalty area to function as a sweeper. He is among the best in the world. He’s only had to make 17 saves in the whole tournament
(Unsurprisingly, Tim Howard has made the most total saves in the tournament, with 27 in four matches.)
The Germans are slight betting favorites. But, Brazil has one of the most formidable home field advantages in the world. Their last loss at home in a competitive match (not a friendly) was in 1975. 1975! They lost to Peru, 3-1, in the first leg of a Copa America semifinal in Belo Horizonte. Brazil won the second leg 2-0 to finish 3-3 on aggregate. Peru advanced to the final by drawing lots.
It’s not unprecedented for a host country to lose in the semifinals. The Germans lost to Italy in the 2006 semifinals in Dortmund. South Korea lost to Germany in the 2002 semis in Seoul. Italy lost to Argentina at home in the 1990 semis.
Germany looks to have enough to win this match. Except I don’t think they will. I think Brazil will find a way through to the final. I wish I could explain why. The margins at this point are so narrow, that it won’t take much to catch a break and get a winning goal.
Can’t wait to see it.
This time, I think I have the right time on the post. It’s the last quarterfinals. And yesterday, the royalty of soccer was served as Germany and Brazil advanced to the semifinals, although Brazil lost Neymar for the rest of the tournament with an injury.
Today’s matches are “countries where people (at least some of them) speak Dutch against countries where people speak Spanish)
These two countries have faced each other just four times and Argentina has won three times, losing only in the 1982 World Cup opener in Barcelona, 1-0.. Their first meeting was in the 1928 Amsterdam Olympics. Argentina won that 6-3. They last played in the 1986 World Cup semifinals in Mexico City and Argentina won 2-0. So these two countries tend to play just when it’s important. (They played one friendly in Brussels in 1984 which Argentina won 2-0.)
Like just about all the teams expected to be great in this World Cup, these teams have won, but have never overwhelmed anybody. But, if you’ve watched their matches, you’ve never really thought they were going to lose. (Unless you are a member of the Steve Wondolowski Marching and Chowder Society.)
Argentina is considered by many to still be Leonel Messi and ten other guys. But, that’s quite unfair to that roster, which is loaded. The oddsmakers have Argentina as a slight favorite.
Since most people here have now watched Belgium (for two full hours), you know that they are incredibly good. The Belgians are technically skilled and loaded with speed. They should be able to run with Argentina.
Do they have a defense that can contain Messi? The Belgian goalie, Thibaut Courtois, was just as good as Tim Howard on Tuesday, but he didn’t have to work as hard. But he’s awesome. And very big.
The Belgians strength is their youth, but others will think that it’s a weakness. Will the younger Belgian players fall apart if they fall behind early? Probably not, as they came from behind in their first two matches. Belgium has scored all of its goals late.
I would hope that this is the best match of the quarterfinals. But I only know that I know very little.
This is the first ever matchup between the two nations. Which is not too surprising. Costa Rica is the last Cinderella team left in the World Cup and nearly everyone expect that there will be a lot of pumpkins on the pitch at the end of this match. Costa Rica is around +600 to win. The Dutch are around -190 to win.
Costa Rica does not have the talent to go directly at Netherlands and must hope that they can sit back and pray for a counterattack chance. The Dutch have actually been giving those up as they are not an overwhelmingly disciplined side.
The Dutch do have a lot of talent. They may have annoying talent, like Arjen Robben, but that’s still way more than Costa Rica. The Dutch should win this easily.
They probably won’t. So far (not knowing the Argentina-Belgium result) no match from the Round of 16 on has been decided by more than two goals.
I would love to see Costa Rica win. I really don’t think that will happen. But I have a jersey for both countries. So I’m covered.
Today’s winners play on Tuesday in a semifinal at Sao Paulo.
(The timer to post this was wrong. But I will run it anyway. I didn’t edit it except to tell you that it was at the wrong time.)
What a better way to celebrate Independence Day than to watch a pair of soccer matches from Brazil featuring four countries that are not the USA, although one of them does wear red, white, and blue. But, that team’s fans don’t like us. So go figure.
These teams have played each other 25 times dating back to 1931. Unsurprisingly, they didn’t play each other from 1937 through 1952. France has won 11 times, Germany 8 times, and there have been 6 draws. Germany has three World Cup wins and the French have one.
The weight of history on this matchup is great. But, in this day, the French are likely to be more upset about the events of 1982 rather than World Wars I and II. (Or hipsters who are still mad about the Franco-Prussian War.)
Germany needed extra time to beat Algeria in its second round match 2-1. France scored twice late against Nigeria for a 2-0 win. The oddsmakers have Germany as a slight favorite, mostly because of its pedigree.
The Germans, if they are healthy, have the depth to adapt to any other style. They can keep throwing scoring threat after scoring threat on to the field. (Well, they have to stop after three subs.) France, with the exception of a scoreless draw against Ecuador, haven’t had much trouble to deal with in this tournament.
There will be trouble for the French on Friday morning. The Germans are not going to make the defensive mistakes that Nigeria made. The French will have to go out and take the initiative.
I would expect the Brazilian crowd to be pulling for the French because: 1) the Germans aren’t overly popular and 2) the Brazilians would probably rather not have to play Germany in the semifinals (if they make it.)
I think Germany will have enough to win this one. But no one will be happy about it.
This should be the match of the day. The host country, the tournament favorite, will have their hands full with the tournament’s darlings. the relative upstarts from Colombia.
Brazil has slogged its way through to the quarterfinals, but has yet to really catch fire. The Brazilian attack has looked slow and somewhat ponderous. Aside from Neymar, the Brazilians have been struggling to find any attacking creativity. The Brazilians had to survive a penalty tiebreaker against Chile.
Colombia, which wasn’t expected to do much without Radamel Falcao, has looked dazzling, winning all three of its group games and then beating a semifinalist from 2010, Uruguay, in the second round. The big man for Colombia has been James Rodriguez. Or as his jersey says “James.” (And again, pronounce it with an H.)
Brazil and Colombia have played each other 25 times. Colombia has won … twice. Neither of those wins were in Brazil either. Colombia beat Brazil in Vina del Mar, Chile in 1991 (2-0) and in Bogota in 1985 (1-0). Brazil has 18 wins. The last four matches between the two teams have been draws, three of them scoreless. They last played in November 2012 at Met Life Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, a 1-1 tie.
It was almost exactly 20 years ago when Colombian defender Andres Escobar was murdered back home in Medellin, after Colombia was eliminated from the 1994 World Cup. Escobar gave up an own goal in a 2-1 loss to the United States, but the actual reason for his murder is likely more complicated and probably even more stupid.
Colombia today has shed much of its image as a home to drug cartels and pointless murders and kidnappings, although they still happen. But, it’s not quite as bad. And perhaps people associate Colombia with Shakira or Sofia Vergara now instead of Pablo Escobar more.
Brazil is favored by the oddsmakers, but I will be pulling for Los Cafeteros. History is not on Colombia’s side in this match. But I can dream.
Today’s winners play each other in a semifinal in Belo Horizonte on Tuesday.